Objectively, the uprisings and popular movements in the Arab countries of North Africa and the Middle East, especially those in Tunisia and Egypt, have been the most important events of the year. Unemployment, the high cost of living, poverty and the demands for democracy and freedom demanded by the peoples in anger against the oppression they have suffered for decades, the oppression exercised by autocratic governments supported by imperialism, constitute the common basis of these popular movements. Particularly in Tunisia and Egypt, the popular masses took to the streets for several weeks with demonstrations of thousands and thousands of people. These movements encompassed very broad layers of the people, workers of all branches, young people, the unemployed, in short, all those who demand democracy and freedom against the dictatorships, which constituted the driving forces of these events. In all the demonstrations, protests and popular revolts, large or small, that have taken place in the Arab countries, the youth have occupied an important place and played an essential role. In particular, it has been the masses of unemployed youth who have been the driving force behind these demonstrations.

It is generally admitted that this first phase of the Arab popular movements and revolts is over. The result of these movements is still far from achieving the peoples' deep aspirations for radical change and economic, social and political freedom. However, the pro-US and pro-Western regimes in Tunisia and Egypt have been dealt major blows, even if they have not been liquidated. Now, with the support and guidance of the U.S. and other Western imperialist countries that were caught off guard by those popular revolts, they are striving to close the gaps that have been opened, and to reorganize the dictatorships without Ben Ali or Mubarak. Under the pretext of helping Tunisia and Egypt against an "Islamic terrorist threat", the imperialists are accelerating their intervention to control the popular movements in the area, expand and secure their sphere of influence and control. These interventions accentuate the struggle for the division of these regions and sharpen the contradictions between the imperialist countries.

The youth movement, launched as a common action of young students and the unemployed, has in some countries been an integral part, and sometimes the spark, that has launched the popular movement, as in the Arab countries, and has joined the strikes of the workers as for example in Chile. In different countries, youth movements influence each other, they show solidarity.

In some countries, alongside specific demands for democracy and political freedoms, the real triggers of mass and youth movements are unemployment, poverty, and attacks on economic, social and educational gains.

In countries like Greece where the crisis is worsening and the country is being crushed by the weight of debt, the mass movement has developed new demands such as "an end to the payment of all foreign and internal debts", "state control of capital movements", "expropriation of the banks, of the wealth of all capitalists and of companies that illegally transfer money abroad",  thus overcoming everyday and partial demands. In that country, the work of agitation to get out of imperialist institutions such as the IMF, the World Bank, the European Union and the European Monetary Union has taken on particular importance.

It is worth mentioning that together with the accumulated economic, social and political problems, the effects of the crisis in 2008-2009 that hit the workers and the popular masses, have favored the explosion of the mass movement and the youth.

Of course, it is not possible to determine precisely how and in what direction the movement will be oriented on an international scale. But, we can and must say that the tendency to intensify and spread the mass movement in general, and that of the youth in particular, is not temporary. In the near future, it will not be a surprise to see outbursts of anger and popular revolts, such as those that have taken place in Arab countries.

Our claims are based mainly on two factors: First, given the worsening living and working conditions in recent years, anger is building up among the working masses. Secondly, after the economic crisis of 2008, the capitalist economy had a relative recovery and growth, from the second half of 2009 to mid-2011 without preventing the continuous degradation of the working and living conditions of the working masses. All spheres of economic and social life continued to be hit hard. In addition, as a result of a recovery process that has lasted almost two years, without reaching the level of industrial production of the advanced capitalist countries before the crisis, there are growing signs that the world capitalist economy will not even be able to continue this process of revival and growth.

The Present Situation and Trend of the World Capitalist Economy

Although the speed of growth in the first seven months of this year has slowed compared to the same period last year, total industrial production in the world and the volume of trade exceeded the pre-crisis level.

If you take industrial production for the year 2000 as a base of 100, the pre-crisis high was 134.7. This same figure, after having registered a small decline in April 2011, continued its progression during the months of May, June and July to reach the figure of 143.1. Again, taking 2000 as a base 100, the volume of world trade had peaked at 161 at the beginning of 2008 and reached 166 in May of this year. The figures for June and July are slightly lower (162.8 and 164.2) and remain below the level recorded in May 2011.

The interpretation of the economic statistics available in July of this year shows that world industrial production exceeds the highest level before the crisis; but that, in most advanced capitalist countries such as the United States and Japan, industrial production and the volume of world trade are approaching the pre-crisis level, i.e. still below.

Taking the year 2000 as a baseline, the peak of industrial production in 2008 (the year the crisis erupted) is around 109 for the United States, 110 in Japan, 114.7 in the euro area, 237 in Asia, and 130.5 in Latin America. In July 2011 the level of production in the world reached: 102 for the United States, 94.7 in Japan (99.7 in February), 108.4 in the euro area, 317.4 in Asia, 114.3 (114.8 in February) in Africa and the Middle East and 132.8 (133.9 in March) in Latin America.

The data show that over a two-year period, from July 2009 to July 2011, world industrial production grew faster than the volume of world trade, with disparities between countries and regions, and changes in the balance of power between imperialist powers. The latest data are the expression of a slowdown in the growth of world industrial production that highlights its unstable development.

You can see a drop in both the sector that produces the means of production and the growth of industrial production in general. According to "UNIDO" figures, the industrial production of industrial countries (i.e. developed Western capitalist countries) instead of growing, has shrunk by -1.5%, in the last quarter compared to the previous quarter. Economic growth (GDP) in the second quarter of this year was just 0.1% in Germany and the EU average was 0.2%. Orders are falling in the US, Japan and China, as well as in the EU.

We have seen the fluctuations, shocks and "currency wars" in the financial markets and the debt crisis that can be predicted will deepen and widen. This is the main point of contention for never-ending summits and negotiations.

It is common knowledge that there are large recovery programmes, worth billions – carried out mainly in the developed capitalist countries and also throughout the world – aimed at the recovery of purchases and economic revival, as well as at saving banks and companies from imminent bankruptcy.

It is clear that these short-term programs, set up with the mobilization of all available resources, were one of the factors in the increase in demand and economic growth of the last two years, as well as in gaining control over the crisis. But this has also greatly inflated government debts and led to the current debt crisis. And now, the role of government debts and the debt crisis is reversed—as negative factors affecting financial markets and economies in general.

The U.S., the world's most indebted country with debts of $14 trillion dollars, delayed its "bankruptcy" by raising its debt limit. On the other hand, the debt crisis seems to be the order of the day in the EU for a long time. The debt crisis, discussed as the euro crisis, is threatening the future of the EU.

In order to "bail out" countries such as Ireland, Greece, Spain and Italy, which one after another have been caught up in the debt crisis, "rescue packages" have been put in place. In addition, there are discussions, suggestions about the creation of a "European economic governance", as well as the insertion in the constitutions of each EU member state of "a debt ceiling/limit" and the permission to create "Eurobonds".

It is a well-known fact that the European Union, as an "internal market" and a "union", is perceived by German imperialism as a strategic "base" to strengthen its position in the struggle for world hegemony. Thus, Germany and France, for this very reason, are impatiently looking for a way out of the euro crisis in order to avoid the dissolution of the eurozone and the EU. Putting a brake on the amount of debt that a member state country can have through the insertion of a "debt limit" into the constitution of the member states' countries and also through the implementation of "crisis programs" or, in other words, the application of savage cuts to workers and workers,  they are trying to strengthen and secure control over the EU. The creation of "EU Economic Governance" involves weak states relinquishing their sovereign rights to the benefit and interest of strong imperialist states, such as Germany and France, and financial circles.

It is worth noting that the countries affected by the EU debt crisis are also the countries that have stagnant or contracting economies. Greece's GDP has been shrinking over the past three years. In the first quarter of 2011, it fell by 8.1% and in the second quarter it fell by 6.9%. The growth rate between the last quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2011 in the Italian economy was only 0.1%. The growth rate of Italian production, compared to its pre-crisis peak, has been reduced by 15%. In other words, the debt crisis has been a factor that has aggravated the contraction in the aforementioned economies, and the contraction has made it increasingly difficult to overcome the debt crisis.

Today for the capitalist world, and more specifically for the advanced capitalist countries, the possibility of intervening in the process of development of the world capitalist economy is much more limited than before. Because of the new burdens placed on the shoulders of the working masses, their purchasing power has been persistently limited, unemployment and poverty have increased.

In every country facing a debt crisis, new and expanded "rescue" packages are being implemented or have been announced. It is said that 300,000 workers from just 13 monopolies are going to be laid off. It is clear that the fall in the purchasing power of the masses is one of the factors causing the contraction of domestic markets, as well as the stagnation of the world economy.

On the other hand, in the capitalist world for a short period after the 2008 crisis, the funds and "regulatory packages" that can be used to boost orders and the economy have long since been exhausted. The result of the huge interventions or stimulus packages implemented after the 2008 crisis is only going to get worse due to the fall or contraction of the national and global economy in general.

Going forward, the chance that the world's second-largest economy, namely China, will be able to lift the world economy (as it did during the 2008-09 crisis) is minimal. During the 2008 crisis, China, as a result of granting credit at low interest rates and through regulatory programs, not only allowed its economy to continue to grow, but also played an important role in the reconstruction and relative growth of the world capitalist economy and in particular of the economies of the imperialist countries. However, the consequences of China's actions have been high interest rates, overinflation in the housing market and the "imperceptible" (regionally) rise in debt. Those factors minimize the possibility of China intervening in markets as it did before.

The present situation of the capitalist-imperialist world indicates that the world capitalist economy will not even be able to continue the recovery of the last two years and that the existing contradictions will become more acute. This will inevitably increase the discontent, despair, anger and confrontation that will inevitably provoke the intensification of the struggles of the masses of workers, peoples and youth who endure multiple attacks.

The above-mentioned events, in accordance with the particular conditions of each country, brought about an increase in the movements of the working class, the working masses and the youth of the whole world, despite the weaknesses of the movement: dispersion, disorganization and lack of political perspective.

The last mentioned characteristics of the movements of the working class, of the masses and of the youth have been evident in the present period. It is also objective that weakness and deficiencies in the subjective factor reduce the possibility of accumulation of power and experience as well as new achievements of the movement. The weakness of the subjective factor in the first place and, above all, the non-existence of revolutionary parties of the working class in most countries and in the countries where their links with the working class exist are weak.

All of this is something we knew, and there is no benefit to repeating it. The question is that our parties are prepared to raise their work and struggles to such a level that allows them to overcome these weaknesses. The emergence and spread of the movements of the working class, of the masses and of the youth, as well as the movements of the oppressed peoples, implies the following: the creation or strengthening of revolutionary movements of the working class, the creation of closer and wider links with the masses, and the overcoming of weakness in the movement.

International Conference of Marxist-Leninist Parties and Organizations (ICMLPO).
Madrid, October 2011

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